UK peatland and woodland carbon
Delivery risk assessment for UK peatland carbon units
Most UK nature carbon units sold today are Pending Issuance Units (PIUs): commitments to carbon savings that will be verified many years after purchase. Oreyt assesses how many of the units a project has promised are likely to be verified, when that is likely to happen and what this implies for a fair price.
Peatland Code pipeline
Sources: IUCN UK Peatland Programme project statistics; Peatland Code Technical Advisory Board minutes (19 May 2026). Each stage is dated individually.
Scheduled verification of promised units, by decade
Across 19 published schedules totalling 529,773 PIUs, 4% of units are due for verification before 2030. The remainder extend to the 2120s.
Woodland Carbon Code projects with amber or red status at year 5 22%
Average PIU price in 2025, peat and woodland £39.57 and £28.32
Projected peatland units across registered projects 12.9m tCO₂e The price averages are drawn from three survey responses (Woodland Carbon Code price survey). A single average price does not reflect differences in expected delivery between projects.
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Select a marker on the map to view the public facts for that listing.
Method and sources
How we assess delivery risk
We treat the units a project has promised as a forward delivery schedule. The face value is the number of units promised. The question we address is how many of those units are likely to be verified and when that is likely to happen.
The delivery curve Each project publishes a schedule setting out the units expected at the first verification and at each verification after that. We simulate the future of each project several thousand times. In each simulation a verification may pass, be delayed or fall short. Later units may also be affected by events such as drought, fire or a change to the emission factors used by the Code. The average across simulations gives the expected share delivered. The spread of outcomes gives a likely range.
Risk drivers Readiness for first verification The stage of restoration, the time remaining to first verification and the monitoring in place. Evidence of condition The starting and target condition categories and the evidence supporting them. Plausibility of claimed savings Claimed tCO₂e per hectare per year, compared with what the bog type and change in water table can credibly support. Exposure to changes in the Code Sensitivity to revisions of the Code’s emission factors, which would affect many projects at once. Timing The likelihood that verifications take place later than scheduled, which defers delivery. Documentation The completeness and consistency of the public project documents. From delivery to price Expected deliveries are discounted for time and for a modest liquidity allowance. The result is compared with the published average PIU price to give an indicative fair discount. This is intended as a starting point for negotiation rather than a quotation.
Sources IUCN UK Peatland Programme: Peatland Code project statistics, covering registered, validated and verified projects and projected units. Peatland Code Technical Advisory Board minutes, covering pipeline stages and the verification pilot. Woodland Carbon Code: verification outcomes at year 5 and the UK carbon price survey. Published project listings from developers, which set out PIU schedules. We do not collect data from registries whose terms prohibit it. Limitations Only two Peatland Code projects have been verified, so our calibration for peat is limited and draws on the record of the Woodland Carbon Code. Scores will change as further verifications are published. Scorecards are analytical opinions. They are not credit ratings, regulated advice or a guarantee of delivery.
Principles Independence We do not develop, broker or trade carbon units. Transparency Each scorecard sets out its drivers, ranges and sources. Recalibration Scores are reviewed as each verification is published.
Oreyt is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Peatland Code, the Woodland Carbon Code, the IUCN UK Peatland Programme or any registry. Scorecards are analytical opinions; they are not credit ratings or investment advice. This site does not use cookies or tracking.
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